Political Thermometer

May 5, 2021
Political Thermometer

Mexico’s politics are currently centered around the midterm elections to be held on June 6th.  There is no topic in Mexican politics that is more relevant than the upcoming elections. These are the most important elections in Mexico´s history. Most of the attention is focused on the reelection of the lower house Chamber of Representatives and the local elections in 15 states. Notwithstanding such elections, mayoral, state and local congressional elections are also very important in their respective jurisdictions.

With respect to federal elections, 300 Representatives will be elected by majority and 200 by proportional representation. The significance of these elections and the biggest question is whether MORENA, the party currently in power, will maintain a majority and continue to advance its agenda through laws and constitutional amendments as part of movement known as the 4T.

As noted, the midterm elections will determine the political fate of 15 Mexican states whose state governments are being reelected. It is well known that governors hold substantial political weight in their respective states, and that they can have a great impact on races, sometimes determining whether a party can maintain or lose power in an election. The states of Guerrero and Michoacán have been the focus of national attention due to election proceedings leading up to the election. Such proceedings resulted in a resolution by the National Electoral Institute (INE for its acronym in Spanish) to revoke the candidacy of two proposed candidates who announced candidacies in these state elections. Both were sanctioned by the INE and both appealed to the Federal Court System’s Electoral Court, which will now determine whether or not the prospective candidates may run in the elections.

The face-off between coalitions: MORENA and its related parties on one side, and PRI, PAN, and PRD on the other (themselves in concert with related parties), creates a noticeable rise in Mexico’s domestic political temperature. It is commonly accepted that midterm elections are critical to the success of the remaining term of a presidential administration. To this writer it is also true that these elections will serve, as the majority of Mexico hopes, to consolidate the strength of Mexico’s democracy.

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