Political Thermometer

July 4, 2022
Political Thermometer

Recent elections held to decide the governments of six Mexican states in 2022 made it clear that Morena, the government party, continues to successfully lead other parties in the electoral preferences of Mexican voters. The elections also indicate that the political opposition is currently in an unfavorable position. Morena easily won the states of Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, Hidalgo and Oaxaca, while the opposition alliance (PAN, PRI, PRD) prevailed only in the states of Aguascalientes and Durango.

The foregoing means Morena now governs around 70 million people, in addition to having the majority in the federal Congress (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). The victories secured in states that had historically shown their adherence to the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), such as Hidalgo and Oaxaca, demonstrate a broad electoral base, which leaves Morena strengthened in relation to the weakened position  of the PRI, and are noteworthy. The next electoral contest will take place next year in the very important State of Mexico, currently and historically governed by the PRI. The relative importance of the State of Mexico derives from several factors: its economic and industrial prominence as the site of numerous companies, its proximity to Mexico City, in widely populated urban and exurban areas, and from the political point of view in its demographic profile. The State of Mexico is the home of almost 17 million people, which is 13.5% of Mexico’s total population. Next year, we will see if Morena maintains its rising status in the electoral preferences of voters,  or if the opposition will find a way to recover what it lost at the polls in 2022. One cannot lose sight of the high approval rating of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who hours after the recent 2022 gubernatorial elections saw his popularity rating reach 70%.

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