Political Thermometer

April 14, 2022
Political Thermometer

Regardless of the outcome of the recall election held throughout the country on April 10, 2022 to determine whether the president will remain in office, Mexico will hold local government elections in the states of Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas. All these states play an important role in national compact that governs the Republic; however, current conditions will focus public attention on a few of them, which will in turn raise the politic temperature of the country. The big mystery is whether MORENA, the party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will continue to win elections and hold an increasing number of political positions. The approval rate of President López Obrador decreased four points, from 62% at the beginning of 2022, to 58% in March, but such does not constitute an unequivocal indicator that voters will change their political preferences when elections are held on June 5, 2022.

Of the six states being contested, the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) governs three: Aguascalientes, Durango and Tamaulipas; the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) governs two: Hidalgo and Oaxaca; and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) just one, Quintana Roo. The ruling MORENA party currently governs none of the six states. Therefore, in some ways MORENA has everything to gain and nothing to lose. The other parties that form the political opposition will use their political capital to fight for increased support, particularly the PRI, which has maintained its bastion in traditionally pro-PRI states such as Hidalgo and Oaxaca. Losing such States would present the PRI with an even bigger crisis than the one it faces now.

The result of the presidential recall election will likely be an indicator of the results to expect in the June elections. However, two months is a long time in the volatile world of Mexican politics. We shall soon see how the political thermometer in Mexico will behave.

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